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Sunday, November 30, 2008
Statistical Process Control (SPC)
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Saturday, November 15, 2008
Root Cause Analysis
Root cause analysis (RCA) is a class of problem solving methods aimed at identifying the root causes of problems or events. The practice of RCA is predicated on the belief that problems are best solved by attempting to correct or eliminate root causes, as opposed to merely addressing the immediately obvious symptoms. By directing corrective measures at root causes, it is hoped that the likelihood of problem recurrence will be minimized. However, it is recognized that complete prevention of recurrence by a single intervention is not always possible. Thus, RCA is often considered to be an iterative process, and is frequently viewed as a tool of continuous improvement.
Root cause analysis is not a single, sharply defined methodology; there are many different tools, processes, and philosophies of RCA in existence. However, most of these can be classed into five, very-broadly defined "schools" that are named here by their basic fields of origin: safety-based, production-based, process-based, failure-based, and systems-based.
- Safety-based RCA descends from the fields of accident analysis and occupational safety and health.
- Production-based RCA has its origins in the field of quality control for industrial manufacturing.
- Process-based RCA is basically a follow-on to production-based RCA, but with a scope that has been expanded to include business processes.
- Failure-based RCA is rooted in the practice of failure analysis as employed in engineering and maintenance.
- Systems-based RCA has emerged as an amalgamation of the preceding schools, along with ideas taken from fields such as change management, risk management, and systems analysis.
Despite the seeming disparity in purpose and definition among the various schools of root cause analysis, there are some general principles that could be considered as universal. Similarly, it is possible to define a general process for performing RCA.
General principles of root cause analysis
- Aiming corrective measures at root causes is more effective than merely treating the symptoms of a problem.
- To be effective, RCA must be performed systematically, and conclusions must be backed up by evidence.
- There is usually more than one root cause for any given problem.
General process for performing and documenting an RCA-based Corrective Action
Notice that RCA (in steps 3, 4 and 5) forms the most critical part of successful corrective action, because it directs the corrective action at the root of the problem.
- Define the problem.
- Gather data/evidence.
- Identify issues that contributed to the problem.
- Find root causes.
- Develop solution recommendations.
- Implement the recommendations.
- Observe the recommended solutions to ensure effectiveness.
[edit] Root cause analysis techniques
- 5 Whys
- Failure mode and effects analysis
- Pareto analysis
- Fault tree analysis
- Bayesian inference
- Ishikawa diagram, also known as the fishbone diagram or cause and effect diagram
- Barrier analysis - a technique often used in particularly in process industries. It is based on tracing energy flows, with a focus on barriers to those flows, to identify how and why the barriers did not prevent the energy flows from causing harm.
- Change analysis - an investigation technique often used for problems or accidents. It is based on comparing a situation that does not exhibit the problem to one that does, in order to identify the changes or differences that might explain why the problem occurred.
- Causal factor tree analysis - a technique based on displaying causal factors in a tree-structure such that cause-effect dependencies are clearly identified.
Basic Elements of Root Cause
- Materials
- Defective Raw Material
- Wrong type for job
- Lack of raw material
- Machine/Equipment
- Incorrect tool selection
- Poor maintenance or design
- Poor equipment or tool placement
- Defective Equipment or tool
- Environment
- Orderly workplace
- job design or layout of work
- Surfaces poorly maintained
- Physical demands of the task
- Forces of Nature
- Management
- No or poor management involvement
- Inattention to task
- Task hazards not guarded properly
- Other (horseplay, inattention....)
- Stress demands
- Methods
- No or poor procedures
- Practices are not the same as written procedures
- Poor communication
- Management System
- Training or education lacking
- Poor employee involvement
- Poor recognition of hazard
- Previously identified hazards were not eliminated
Here Some Scheme matrix of RCA Download it HERE
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Thursday, August 21, 2008
Quality-Process-Software-CMMI-ISO-SixSigma
http://www.sei.cmu.edu/cmmi/presentations/sepg05.presentations/cepeda-cmmi.pdf
CMMI 1.2 for Development online - browser version
http://www.wibas.de/presentation/site/cmmi_1.2_browser.html.en
This is the link to see online version of CMMI 1.2 for development
http://chrguibert.free.fr/cmmi12/text/index.php
What is not CMMI Level 4 and 5
http://www.sei.cmu.edu/appraisal-program/presentations/hi-matmis.pdf
Causal Analysis and Resolution: A Business Driver at All Levels http://www.dtic.mil/ndia/2002cmmi/norausky3a1.pdf
Quality Glossary
http://www.isixsigma.com/dictionary/glossary.asp
Quality Methodologies
http://www.isixsigma.com/me/
Statistics in Quality
http://www.isixsigma.com/st/
Quality Tools
http://www.isixsigma.com/tt/-
5Whys http://www.protoolkits.com/Analysisandrequirements/Analysistechniques/fivewhys.html-
Fishbone Diagrams
http://www.protoolkits.com/Analysisandrequirements/Analysistechniques/fishbonediagrams.html
Manage Changes
http://www.protoolkits.com/Analysisandrequirements/managechangerequests.html-
Process Maps
http://www.protoolkits.com/Analysisandrequirements/Analysistechniques/processmaps.html
One who wants to know about CMMI and related stuff, become a member in https://seir.sei.cmu.edu/seir
[Site will ask you about the work you do and why you want to become a member.]
Some Project Management Literature Templates and Checklists can be found athttp://www.brookes.ac.uk/services/hr/project/templates/index.html
Project Management Reference Site
http://www.managementhelp.org/plan_dec/project/project.htmhttp://www.method123.com/free-project-management-book.php
Some Suggested Readings
www.processimpact.com/PMBP/Module_8/data/downloads/metrics_traps.pdf http://www.processimpact.com/pubs.shtml#requirements http://www.processimpact.com/articles/metrics_primer.html
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Wednesday, August 13, 2008
Relation Between CMMi and Six SIgma
This report contains a brief summary of each initiative and then outlines the connections between frameworks commonly used in Six Sigma and the CMMI process areas. Coupling this knowledge with a conscious strategy enables an organization to create tactical plans and specific mappings to support implementation.
Example strategies and tactics that organizations have used to integrate these initiatives are also provided.
http://www.sei.cmu.edu/pub/documents/05.reports/pdf/05tn005.pdf
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Friday, March 14, 2008
Six Sigma for Leaders
by Pete Pande
The nature of the debate surrounding Six Sigma presents an opportunity to better understand how value can be offered to improve the caliber of leadership in an organization.
It’s been more than 10 years since GE’s aggressive adoption of Six Sigma launched a renaissance of quality methods, and some 20 years since Motorola first began minting Black Belts and concentrating on defects. And yet, despite hundreds of documented successes and thousands of committed Six Sigma practitioners, criticism of and skepticism about Six Sigma remains as strong, and probably stronger, than ever.
One recent, visible example: when Bob Nardelli departed as head of Home Depot, anti-Sigma voices quickly proclaimed that his downfall showed the failure of Six Sigma. On a daily basis, you can find dozens of articles and blogs proclaiming that rather than promoting improvement Six Sigma serves to squelch innovation and creativity.
Even if one shares in the skepticism about Six Sigma, it could be suggested that the arguments pro and con warrant attention from those in the quality field. And that the nature of the debate presents an opportunity to better understand how value can be offered not just to improve processes and products, but to improve the caliber of leadership in an organization.
How the Real World Hears the Argument
It is important not to over-simplify the message of Six Sigma concepts. Even if management and executives buy into and have enthusiasm for many ideas of Six Sigma, the door is often left open for some legitimate doubts. Here are examples of a few Six Sigma sacred cows and how they often come across to those who spend their days running businesses and departments:
Measurement and Management by Fact
Most managers and leaders agree that they need more—or at least better—metrics, and would be better off using data more consistently in their diagnosis and decision-making. But for plenty of critical decisions, most leaders recognize that the uncertainties they have to cope with are not likely to be eliminated, at least in the short-term, by improved measures. This is especially true of the strategic choices that most influence the future of a business. Management can be improved by better measures, but always requires some element of “gut.”
Focus on the Customer
Six Sigma has helped many organizations (re)connect with customers and better align products and services to their needs. At the same time, smart businesspeople know when to, in a sense, ignore the customer. A laser-like attention to satisfying today’s customers can, in fact, lead a company into trouble—an oft-cited example being Motorola’s focus on high-quality analog cell phones.
It’s All About Process
Many have said: “It’s not the people, it’s the process.” But sometimes it is the people.
One of the best ways to show that Six Sigma does not work (or any other approach, for that matter) is to define it narrowly—for example, “it’s only about defect reduction”—and then provide examples where it does not apply. That’s what happens when an organization fails to account for the diversity of challenges that face businesses and leaders. Six Sigma principles and methods can be applied to a broader array of issues, and can have real relevance to leaders facing an increasingly complex environment. But first, the real nature of why simple answers do not work has to be understood.
The Paradoxes of Business Success
If one listens carefully to the arguments for and against Six Sigma or, more broadly, to debates over how to achieve success in business, it will be found that there is no single right answer. In fact, there are usually at least two—often seemingly contradictory—right answers. These can be called paradoxes, perhaps not technically correct, but pretty close.
Some of these paradoxes have already been touched on: facts and intuition are critical; processes and people count; love the customer, but beware of the customer. There are others: speed should be balanced with deliberateness; teamwork is key, but individual initiative is an essential catalyst; asking for buy-in works for many people, but a smart leader knows when to enforce compliance. Each is right, and wrong, depending on the circumstance.
Another critical paradox involves change itself. Proactive organizations and leaders are continually trying to improve their performance and stay ahead in the race to compete. But ironically the push for change can be self-defeating. Here’s the classic problem described by a key manager: “The tendency right now is to do everything. Leadership is getting frustrated because they’ve been trying to fix things for five years or so and instead of getting better, things seem to be getting worse.” One of the most valuable steps to achieving greater change return on investment is to stop changing so much.
Applying Six Sigma to Leadership
Like anyone, leaders fall victim to their own habits and preferences—when what they need is the ability to adapt to each new situation and embrace the reality of the paradoxes. Particularly as the pace of change accelerates, leaders need to work even smarter than ever—and cannot rely on past experience or charisma to ensure future success.
With that in mind, Six Sigma approaches can best support effective leadership by emphasizing the themes of balance and flexibility. In other words, the benefit of Six Sigma discipline should not be limited to, for example, better data, but rather to helping leaders gain a clearer understanding of when more data is critical. Or when a decision by necessity is based more on intuition than facts, they need help to manage risks and/or more effectively test their hypotheses by applying facts after the decision.
This means changing the game and broadening the scope of many Six Sigma initiatives—though for some of the most successful efforts the gap will be much narrower. It may be necessary to adjust an organization’s working definition of Six Sigma—or even rebrand its efforts. But first, if one is up to the challenge, leaders will have to be engaged with differently to demonstrate how one’s support can help them beyond the confines of the Six Sigma program.
Some tips on where to start:
Position change as an investment
Rather than just picking the next DMAIC (define, measure, analyze, improve and control), lean or Design for Six Sigma projects, leaders should be engaged in a discussion around how the broader portfolio of change initiatives are selected and managed. They should be encourage to do less and establish guidelines to ensure a more balanced set of investments, for example,, a conscious mix of quick hits, mid-range and long-range initiatives.
Acknowledge/market the paradoxes
A more credible view of how Six Sigma can help a business should acknowledge both where the core principles fit, and where they don’t. As an example, if a project team had to forge ahead without solid Voice of the Customer (VOC) input, one should not be too quick to see that as a failure, but rather a business choice—the validity of which can be assessed over time. Getting comfortable with the boundaries and trade offs does not mean excusing laziness or lack of discipline. Instead, it puts an organization in a position to better understand where and when to push harder— for example, invest time and money to get more VOC data—and when to manage the risks on the back end.
Encourage Hypotheses
One of the biggest complaints about Six Sigma—particularly from leaders—is that, “we already know (or knew) the answer.” In reality, however, no answer or solution is a 100% certainty. One can actually help leaders—without telling them they are wrong—by reminding them that their answers are really educated guesses. Just that subtle shift in perspective opens the door to greater discipline and flexibility. Reticent leaders can feel encouraged to act as long as they can manage the unknowns. Confident ones may be willing to apply more care rather than simply assume their answers are correct.
Love it or hate it, Six Sigma is the closest we’ve come to bringing quality thinking into the realm of leadership since Deming’s challenging 14 points. Naysayers can continue to marginalize and undermine the gains made so far. It is much better to recognize the aspects of Six Sigma that can be applied to the real challenges of leadership—and build on the successes achieved during the past 20 years.
Tech Tips
# Awareness of the paradoxes of business can help leaders work smarter.
# Six Sigma approaches can best support effective leadership by emphasizing the themes of balance and flexibility.
# An organization may need to broaden the scope of its Six Sigma initiative to see positive results.
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Monday, March 3, 2008
Lean Manufacturing or Six Sigma - which method is best?
by Carl Wright
Lean Manufacturing or Six Sigma?
Lean Manufacturing and Six Sigma are two of the most popular improvement initiatives utilized by major corporations. Many companies employ both methodologies combined under the name Lean Six Sigma.
Many companies are struggling to determine which initiative will bring the most impact for their organization.
It is critical for those individuals tasked with making the decision to understand the differences between lean manufacturing and six sigma.
First of all, they are both improvement initiatives. However, they are very different. Both are a collection of various "tools". For example, lean utilizes the tools of 5S, SMED, value stream mapping, takt time, standardized operations, error proofing, kaizen, line balancing, cellular manufacturing, and many others. Six sigma utilizes the tools of process mapping, FMEA, Cause and Effects Analysis, statistical analysis and process controls, regression analysis, design of experiments, and many others.
Lean manufacturing is a much less structured and is often viewed as the low hanging fruit of opportunities. Lean manufacturing initiatives often employ the Plan-Do-Check-Act (PDCA) model, while Six Sigma utilizes the Define-Measure-Analyze-Improve-Control (DMAIC) model.
When companies combine the methodologies into a "Lean Six Sigma" initiative, most will utilize the DMAIC model and utilize lean tools where applicable. For example, when the six sigma project is at the Improve phase, a line balancing exercise could be used.
The PDCA model utilized with lean is often a quick process compared to the DMAIC model. Lean projects are often completed in hours or days, whereas most six sigma projects will take weeks or months to complete.
The lean manufacturing method is more of a "just do it" approach. The project might be planned, conducted, checked, and acted upon in the same day. For example, a manufacturing line might be changed to a U shaped cell in the morning, and fine tuned in the afternoon.
Maximum improvements are obtained when the tools are not forced into use. The business problem, challenge, or opportunities should point to which tools should be used.
For example, if a business wants to cut cycle time, it could be a six sigma, lean manufacturing, or combined project, depending on the complexity of the issues. If the setup time is the majority of the cycle time, a SMED project or simple kaizen event may obtain the improvement. If the entire supply chain is complex and the problems (opportunities) are not obvious, a six sigma project might be necessary.
The key is to determine the business problem first, and then decide which tools are necessary to solve it.
Most companies employing six sigma conduct the DMAIC phase model. Most of these projects range from a few weeks to several months. However, there is an emerging trend of utilizing the DMAIC model even if the project will only entail the use of lean tools. Proponents of this method believe the DMAIC model adds structure to lean projects, even when used in a quick manner.
Regardless of which methodology a company chooses to use, lean tools should be part of it. Utilizing six sigma tools without lean tools would limit the improvement potential of many projects. Also, lean tools alone will not solve all business problems, and six sigma increases the probability of success.
The bottom line is a company will benefit most to have both lean manufacturing and six sigma expertise. Although it may be difficult to have people with expertise in both disciplines, any expert in lean or six sigma should have a good understanding of the other
If possible, individuals should continue training until expertise is gained in both methods. When there is no bias toward one discipline, it is easier to keep an open mind as well as an understanding of which tools are best to solve a problem.
In summary, let the business problem determine the tools to use, rather than try to fit a tool to a problem.
A free lean manufacturing training primer of all major lean concepts in included at www.1stcourses.com
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Tuesday, January 29, 2008
ANOVA by any other name
Elegance rules
by Steven Ouellette
Analysis of variance (ANOVA) is an elegant procedure—simple, economical, and powerful.We have this research question:
“Which of the four materials being considered for making a gear has the best wear characteristic?”
This will lead to the statistical question, “Which of the five materials has the highest average wear?” (I’ll discuss another statistical question—about the dispersion—in next month’s column.)
We make up eight gears out of each of the five materials and run them on our wear tester (on which, of course, we have performed our measurement system analysis and determined acceptability). You can get the data here.
We might be tempted to do multiple t-tests, but we would have to do 10 different t-tests (which is annoying). Even worse, when we do that we increase the chance of making an α error. If αFW is the chance of making a Type I error during all the tests, αPC is the Type I error for each test and c is the total number of tests:
So if our αPC for each t-test is 0.05, our actual αFW is inflated to about 40.13 percent.
Holy leftover fruit cake, Batman! That’s a serious chance of concluding that a significant difference exists in the materials when in fact they don’t.
Luckily, there’s a way to test for equality of all group averages in one test. ANOVA works because we have two potential sources of variation: variation within each group and variation between the averages of each group. If all the groups have the same average wear, then the variation between and within the groups is due only to random chance, and the different materials have no effect on wear. On the other hand, if the different materials do have different averages, the total variation we see will be higher than we would have guessed from the variability within each group.
I can therefore estimate the population variance in two ways. I can take the average of the variances within each group and I can find the variance between the means and divide by the sample size. Both ought to give me the same answer, within sampling error, if the true means of the groups are all the same. Here’s the genius part—if I make a ratio of these two estimates, I can use the good old F-statistic to test to see if they’re equal. If they’re different by an amount that could be due to sampling error, then as far as I can tell, the groups are all the same average and I calculate an F close to one. If the averages really are different, then the between estimate of the variance contains sample error and a variance component due to the differences in group averages.
Clearly, this F is going to be larger than one. Another cool thing is that it’s a one-tail test (see why?), which gives us additional power for the same α.
OK, fine, you knew all that. But sometimes it’s fun to just sit back and appreciate elegance when you find it.
Our null hypothesis for this ANOVA is:
H0: μ1 = μ2 = μ3 = μ4 = μ5
The alternative hypothesis is that the null statement is not true somehow.
First I check for normality, because that’s one of the assumptions in ANOVA.
Material | n | (A-D)A²* | p | (S-W)W | p | (L-M)r | p | Skew. | p | Kurt. | p |
1.00 | 8 | 0.463 | 0.266 | 0.902 | 0.301 | 0.166 | 0.796 | 0.190 | 0.798 | -1.301 | >.10 |
2.00 | 8 | 0.654 | 0.089 | 0.859 | 0.117 | 0.701 | 0.161 | -0.820 | 0.271 | -0.924 | >.10 |
3.00 | 8 | 0.392 | 0.396 | 0.897 | 0.274 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | -1.456 | >.10 |
4.00 | 8 | 0.337 | 0.530 | 0.933 | 0.542 | 0.034 | 0.958 | 0.083 | 0.911 | -0.438 | >.10 |
5.00 | 8 | 0.777 | 0.043* | 0.809 | 0.036* | 0.750 | 0.111 | -1.113 | 0.137 | 0.291 | >.10 |
There’s one material that might not be normally distributed, as indicated by the Anderson-Darling and Shapiro-Wilk tests. ANOVA is fairly robust to departures from normality when n is large, but is highly affected by outliers. I reviewed a histogram of the data and found that, while it might be skewed, there are no outliers, therefore we are probably safe with ANOVA. Just to be sure, I ran a Kruskall-Wallace nonparametric test, which confirmed the results.
So we perform an ANOVA on our gear data, and generate something like this:
ONEWAY ANOVA
wear by material [1 to 5]
Source df SS MS F p
Between 4 700.1500 175.0375 46.324 0.000*
Within 35 132.2500 3.7786
Total 39 832.4000
Fixed Effects Analysis:
ω² = 81.92%
I’m going to talk about dispersion analysis in March, so for now let’s assume we have equal variances within the five materials. The p-value on the end of the ANOVA table is the probability of getting an F-statistic of 46.324 (or more extreme) from an F-distribution with 4, 35 degrees of freedom and an average of 1, which is pretty dang unlikely. So we reject the hypothesis that all the averages are equal, and conclude that the different materials do in fact influence the gear wear. The ω2 number is an estimate of the percentage of the total variation explained by differences in material, so clearly those differences are large compared to the sampling error.
But now what? We’ve found a significant difference, and if you refer to the alternative hypothesis, you’ll notice that ANOVA doesn’t tell you where the differences are. Now we enter the world of post-hoc analysis. (Post-hoc just means “after the fact.” Ham hock is something else entirely, so stop drooling.) We will delve into this realm next month, when our managers intrude their reality on our nice antiseptic ANOVA. Then I will show you something that you might not have seen before that could save you oodles of money.
Then again, I could be wrong.
Thanks to Mike Petrovich, for his program MVPstats, which makes these types of analyses fast and easy. Mike now has a shareware version of his flexible SPC program available for download.
About the author
Steven Ouellette is the founder of six-sigma-online.com, president of The ROI Alliance LLC, an instructor at the University of Colorado Engineering Management Program and Director of the Center for Statistical Solutions at the University. He has been in process design and improvement since 1992 as an engineer and later as a consultant working in many different industries. He has a Master Black Belt certification, a master’s degree in engineering management, and a bachelor’s degree in metallurgical and material science. He also acts as a board member on Orion Registrar’s Committee to Safeguard Impartiality.
(SOURCE QualityDigest.com)
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